The infamous "Pinnacle Lean" thread

[quantumleap]

Many people say that Pinnacle Sports is a sharp book. Some people bet according to lines put out by Pinnacle. I'm going to put this to test as I've seen many lines put out by Pinnacle and maybe one or two other books that differ from the rest. This is especially true of overs/unders. When almost all books over "Over 2.5" on a bet and Pinnacle offers "Over 2.5 and 3" it fits the Pinnacle Lean theory.

One exception to this rule is that sometimes Pinnacle will differ from other books but will give you the different price more cheaply. For example, most books may over a bet of "Over 2.5 @ -150" while Pinnacle offers it at "Over 2.5 and 3 @ -110". This may not be a Pinnacle Lean as Pinnacle may just be willing to give the cheaper price only to get you to bet with them.

I'll keep these bets in one thread. I will be betting with the non-Pinnacle book listed and will also give the line that Pinnacle offers.

 

[quantumleap]

7-27-06:

Republic of Ireland, Eircom Premier League
Sligo Rovers/Shelbourne Over 2.5 -125 Centrebet
(Pinnacle: Over 2.5 and 3 -104)

 

[Degz]

7-27-06:

Republic of Ireland, Eircom Premier League
Sligo Rovers/Shelbourne Over 2.5 -125 Centrebet
(Pinnacle: Over 2.5 and 3 -104)

Shelbourne scores almost at will always. I think this is a good bet. Have not decided if I will be on it yet, but good bet nonetheless as it stands..

 

[quantumleap]

Shelbourne scores almost at will always. I think this is a good bet. Have not decided if I will be on it yet, but good bet nonetheless as it stands..

Thanks for the input Degz. Shelbourne has scored 5 against Waterford and 6 against UCD in their last 2 home matches.

I forgot to add that I will only be making bets where I can get 0.25 goals for less than 20 points or where I can get 0.50 goals for less than 40 points. For example, Shelbourne is @ -104 for Pinnacle's Over 2.75 and is @ -125 for Centrebet's Over 2.5. The price difference between -125 and -104 is roughly 20%.

 

[quantumleap]

7-27-06:

Republic of Ireland, Eircom Premier League
Sligo Rovers/Shelbourne Over 2.5 -125 Centrebet
(Pinnacle: Over 2.5 and 3 -104)

Shels 3, Rovers 0. WINNER!

YTD: +0.80
YTD if bet Pinnacle: +0.48

I'll have a couple more for Saturday.

 

[quantumleap]

7/29-30:

Czech Republic, Gambrinus Liga
Kladno/Sparta Praha Over 2.5 -133 (Centrebet)
(Pinnacle: Over 2.5 and 3 -114)

FC Viktoria Plzen/FK Marila Pribram Under 2.5 -143 Interwetten
(Pinnacle: Under 2 -102)

 

[quantumleap]

Japan, J-League
Urawa Red Diamonds/Ventforet Kofu over 2.5 -154 Centrebet
(Pinnacle: Over 2.5 and 3 -136)

Kawasaki Frontale/Oita Trinita over 2.5 -143 Interwetten
(Pinnacle: Over 3 and 3.5 -111)

Shimizu S-pulse/Jubilo Iwata over 2.5 -143 Interwetten
(Pinnacle: Over 3 and 3.5 -125)

 

[AFLGuru]

Are these purely leans based on Pinnacle, or are these actually handicapped first? Just curious.

 

[quantumleap]

Norway, Tippeligaen
Odd Grenland/Vålerenga IF over 2.5 -105 Ladbrokes
(Pinnacle: Over 2.5 and 3 +108)

 

[quantumleap]

Are these purely leans based on Pinnacle, or are these actually handicapped first? Just curious.

This is just a study to see where I can buy 0.25 of a goal for 20 cents or less or else where I can buy 0.50 goal for 40 cents or less. I believe that Pinnacle (bet365 and 10bet often have the same total) has a better idea than I do about the over/under. In the long run these cheaper prices will add up.

My handicapped picks are in my other threads. Thanks for asking so that I may clear that up.

 

[quantumleap]

Japan, J-League
Oita Trinita/Kawasaki Frontale over 2.5 -143 Interwetten
(Pinnacle: Over 3 and 3.5 -116)

 

[acw]

Norway, Tippeligaen
Odd Grenland/Vålerenga IF over 2.5 -105 Ladbrokes

1.75 now. I hope you maxed on that one.

 

[quantumleap]

1.75 now. I hope you maxed on that one.

Just a unit on that one.

All 3 of the Japanese bets lose. The 4th Japanese bet was a duplicate of an earlier match. So far 2 out of the 3 European matches have won with one more set to go on Sunday. I'll tally up then.

 

[quantumleap]

Finland Veikkausliga
Inter Turku FC/Lahti FC under 2.5 -133 Centrebet
(Pinnacle: Under 2 and 2.5 -114)

 

[quantumleap]

Finland Veikkausliga
IFK Mariehamn /Tampere United under 2.5 -125 Centrebet
(Pinnacle: Under 2 and 2.5 -106)

 

[quantumleap]

This theory went 5-1 for the European leagues and 0-3 for the Japanese leagues so I think I will still try this next weekend for European leagues. The FC Viktoria Plzen/FK Marila Pribram under 2.5 match had a goal scored in the 89th minute causing the Pinnacle bet to push but my bet won.

Here are the results:
Sligo Rovers/Shelbourne Over 2.5 0-3 WINNER!
Kladno/Sparta Praha over 2.5 0-0 Loss.
FC Viktoria Plzen/FK Marila Pribram under 2.5 1-1 WINNER! Pinnacle Push.
Urawa Red Diamonds/Ventforet Kofu over 2.5 1-1 Loss.
Shimizu S-pulse/Jubilo Iwata over 2.5 2-0 Loss.
Oita Trinita/Kawasaki Frontale over 2.5 1-1 Loss.
Odd Grenland/Vålerenga IF over 2.5 WINNER!
Inter Turku FC/Lahti FC under 2.5 WINNER!
IFK Mariehamn /Tampere United under 2.5 WINNER!

YTD: -0.14 (Would have been +2.86 without the Japanese leagues.)
Pinnacle YTD: -0.62

 

[quantumleap]

Brazil - Serie A
Fluminense FC/Botafogo Carioca RJ over 2.5 -111 Interwetten
(Pinnacle: Over 2.75 -119)

 

[quantumleap]

Czech Republic - Gambrinus Liga
FC Banik Ostrava/SK Slavia Praha under 2.5 +110 Centrebet
(Pinnacle: Under 2.25 +113)

 

[quantumleap]

Czech Republic - Gambrinus Liga
FC Banik Ostrava/SK Slavia Praha under 2.5 +110 Centrebet
(Pinnacle: Under 2.25 +113)

Sorry. Scratch this bet. I read the Over column instead of the Under column.

 

[quantumleap]

Brazil - Serie A
Fluminense FC/Botafogo Carioca RJ over 2.5 -111 Interwetten
(Pinnacle: Over 2.75 -119)

This one ends 1-1 so it is a loss. The non-Japanese games go 5-2, +1.86.

YTD: -1.14
Pinnacle YTD: -1.62